At AbleWayTech, the Owl Bundle User Group (OBUG) continues to refine its edge-driven approach by integrating Dr. Ken Long’s technical frameworks and EdgeRater for scan and backtesting into a structured logic chain of market interpretation. In our June 13, 2025 OBUG Meeting 119, we applied slope-based analysis across macro regimes, asset classes, and sectors to identify key inflection points and regime transitions.
Macro Regime and Volatility Context
We began our assessment by interpreting macro stress and risk sentiment indicators:
RiskZ (VIX-based) fell to +0.83 and is declining, signaling fading bullish appetite.
NDX63 readings from TNX and DXY show weakening macro support for equities.
Volatility compression is evident: IV22 (21%) is rising while HV22 (12%) is flat, suggesting a "coiled spring" condition.
The Put/Call Volume Ratio Z = +1.4, indicating cautious hedging ahead of potential macro events.
This setup reflects a neutral-to-defensive posture, consistent with volatility-based reversion or breakout potential.
Cross-Asset and Global Capital Rotation
Using RL30Slope Z-scores across major ETFs:
Commodities (PPLT, SLV, USO) show rising slope Z-scores > +1.0.
Real Assets (GLD, VNQ) and Long-duration Treasuries (TLT) are gaining slope, consistent with defensive flows.
UUP (Dollar) shows a Z-score of -0.50 and falling; foreign currencies (FXE, FXA, CEW) are rising.
Implication: Institutions are rotating into hard assets, safety, and non-U.S. exposures—a classic signal of late-cycle or regime shift conditions.
U.S. Sectors and Structural Trends
We analyzed SPY and sector RL30Slope Z:
SPY shows decaying slope across all timeframes.
Only XME (Metals) and XLE (Energy) are trending up; all other sectors are flat or declining.
XLV (Healthcare) and XLP (Staples) are turning up, reflecting early defensive positioning.
This confirms a stealth rotation out of growth and into capital-preserving sectors.
Conclusion: Regime Awareness Drives Tactical Precision
The June 2025 OBUG Market Scan identifies a subtle but decisive macro and sectoral transition. Price-based complacency masks underlying slope deterioration, which precedes volatility re-expansion or reversion trades.
By integrating tools like RL30Slope Z-scores, RiskZ, and cross-asset rotation logic, traders can:
Time entries aligned with volatility regime.
Avoid directional traps during slope flattening.
Anticipate institutional capital shifts before price confirmation.
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