,

Owl Bundle User Group (OBUG) Weekly Insights

,

Market Scans • Backtest Breakthroughs • Future Studies

Why it matters:

In our weekly Owl Bundle User Group (OBUG) sessions we review the current market conditions and backtest trading strategies to identify and validate edges. OBUG is where we take Dr. Ken Long’s trading indicators, stress-test them in EdgeRater, and uncover insights for active traders. Here’s a preview from this week’s meeting:

1. Macro Regime & Volatility Context

  • RISKZ at −0.26σ → Mild risk-OFF tilt; short-term VIX sits above the long-term baseline.

  • TNX (12.7) & DXY (36) → Near the lower end of their 63-day ranges — easing macro headwinds, but vulnerable to reversal.

  • Volatility mix: Realized vol (HV22/HV63) remains low; IV22 modestly above realized; Put/Call Z-score +1.40 indicates a calm tape but rising hedging demand.

Net takeaway: Conditions favor selective positioning — defensive sectors and safe-haven assets lead.

2. Global & Cross-Asset Rotation

  • Regional ETFs: Japan (EWJ) strongest; EFA and ILF improving; Europe, Pacific ex-Japan, EM lagging.

  • Cross-Asset Leadership: Utilities, Treasuries, Gold rising; credit (HYG) and crypto (BITO) weakening.

  • Commodities: Agricultural commodities (DBA) lead; Gold/Silver improving; Platinum and broad commodities lag; Oil flat.

  • Currencies: USD strong (UUP +1.87%); major & EM FX rebounding but still negative slopes.

3. U.S. Sectors & Structural Trends

  • SPY: Long-term uptrend intact (RL90Z rising), RL30Z flattening, RL10Z curling upward.

  • Leaders: Metals & Mining, Utilities.

  • Weakeners: Financials, Energy, Materials, Industrials, Healthcare.

  • Tactical Bias: Defensive, narrow leadership; SPY may drift higher if RL10 momentum builds — but broad participation is lacking.

4. Strategy Backtest – PSAR(RL10) with ADX/DMI Filter

Why we tested it:
The PSAR can flip on shallow pullbacks, creating false entries/exits in non-trending markets. Adding ADX/DMI seeks to filter out noise.

Key findings:

  • DI+ > DI− filter ensures PSAR flips align with a valid directional bias.

  • ADX > threshold exit override prevents premature exits during strong trends.

  • Result: Higher profit factor and expectancy where directional runs are common and ADX stays elevated.

Bottom line:
ADX/DMI transforms PSAR(RL10) from a reactive trigger into a regime-aware trend rider — powerful for ETFs and FX, less so for single stocks without extra conditions. Understanding the edges will enable us to transform these rules into a robust trading systems.

5. Looking Ahead – Future OBUG Studies

  1. Turning Point Detection: Multi-day trend change identification to adjust strategies in real time.

  2. Template Expansion: Backtesting additional EdgeRater templates to complement current studies.

🎥 meeting insights

  • NotebookLM Video & Audio: Market Scan + PSAR Backtest Breakdown.

  •   (NotebookLM Video links )

    • Backtest PSAR(RL10) w/ADX+DMI filter  VIDEO 

      (Unconstrained symbol-specific backtests for edge discovery)

  • EdgeRater Special Series: 6-part video series on Dr. Ken Long’s trading techniques and systematic approach: View Ken Long’s Series on EdgeRater →

  • Full Zoom Recording: Complete meeting replay with Q&A to OBUG members

🚀 Join the OBUG Community

OBUG isn’t just a meeting — it’s a live study group for traders. Each week we:

  • Scan the markets using Dr. Ken Long’s proprietary indicators.

  • Backtest and refine trading systems in EdgeRater.

  • Share findings you can integrate into your own strategies.

If you’re ready to get ongoing market context, backtest insights, and member-only resources, join us here: More Info or Join OBUG Now →


Follow us